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April 30, 2010

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Big Fight Betting & Predictions: Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather vs. ‘Sugar’ Shane Mosley

by Matt O'Brien

Floyd Mayweather, USA (40-0, 25 K.O’s) vs. Shane Mosley, USA (46-5-0-1, 39 K.O’s)

MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada. 1st May, 2010.

Note: Although Mosley is the current WBA welterweight champion, the title will not be on the line as Mayweather refused to pay the required sanctioning fees and elected instead not to fight for the belt. It was stipulated as part of the contracts for this fight that it should be referred to and promoted as “Mayweather-Mosley”, and not “Mosley-Mayweather”. It is believed therefore that Mayweather will also enter the ring last and have his name and record announced second in the ring – traditionally roles reserved for the champion.

BETTING:

Despite the fact that this is largely seen as Floyd Mayweather’s toughest fight, and viewed as a very competitive match-up in the boxing business, the bookmakers still have Floyd as a solid favourite.

UK’s Sky Bet are giving odds of 1/4 for Floyd to take the fight outright – meaning for every £4 you bet on Mayweather, your winnings will be a measly £1.

If you fancy backing the underdog Mosley, however, you will find very tempting odds of 3/1 for the fight outright – meaning for every £1 you bet on him you win three.

Analyzing the odds a bit more closely, if you happen to fancy Mosley’s chances in this fight, it could be a very lucrative night for you indeed. Pick the ‘Sugar’ man on points and you will be rewarded with odds of 6/1; by any method inside 12 rounds and you’ll get 15/2.  The big money in this fight can be won if you really put your neck on the line though and call the exact round in which the underdog will win: pick any round from 1-12 and you’ll get a massive 66/1. Quite surprising odds given that Mosley is the proven puncher in the fight, and worth a punt if you ask me.

If you think Mosley is capable of the stoppage though, ‘group rounds’ betting is where the clever money could be won. Pick him to win in either of the following groups – rounds 1-4, rounds 5-8 or rounds 9-12 – and you’ll get excellent odds of 16/1.

The safe money is – not surprisingly given his track record – on Mayweather to take a decision after 12 rounds. Choose this outcome, and you’ll get odds of 1/2. Choose Mayweather inside the distance, and you’ll get a much more appealing 10/3.

The under/over rounds betting for tonight’s fight is listed at: Under 10 rounds 21/10; Over 10 rounds 1/3. The bookmakers clearly echoing the general consensus that this will be a long fight, probably decided on points.

Boxing Philosophy Fantasy League Predictions:

M.O.Boxer: “My heart says Mosley, but my head says Mayweather. Even though I really like Mosley’s chances of pulling off the upset, I’ve picked against Floyd before and he’s always proved me wrong, so I’m going to go with my head over my heart on this one and say that Floyd will win a decision, probably winning about 8 of the 12 rounds”. Mayweather, Points (over 10).

‘Boom Boom’ Brown: “I’d love Mr Mosley to win this fight because I can’t stand Mayweather… but my head says Floyd on points by a unanimous decision.” Mayweather, Points (over 10).

H. Grenyer: “‘Money’ too quick, too good, too slick.” Mayweather, Points (over 10).

‘Ferocious’ Joe: “Going with my heart on this one but still feel its right. Mosley is not a small, slow, no movement guy. This is a test, make no mistake. He’s going to  come here as the underdog but with the tools to pull it off. It depends on whether Mayweather is as good as he says or shows a true fighter lays inside. Whatever the result it will be a classic”. Mosley, Stoppage, Over 10.

‘Gavster’: “Even as I type this I am unsure what to go with; my head, or my heart. I’ll go with my heart.” Mosley, Points (over 10)

J. Tasker: Mayweather, TKO, Over 10.

Andy Cathy: Mayweather, Points (over 10).

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1 Comment Post a comment
  1. May 2 2010

    Even as I type this I am unsure what to go with; my head, or my heart. I’ll go with my heart, Mosley points (over)

    Reply

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